COVID-19 in East Suffolk

[boatbuilder]

With the indication that the cases of Covid-19 in the UK are starting to increase again, for the past month I have been keeping a close watch on the cases that are being reported here in our 'Lower Tier Authority' of East Suffolk. To get some idea of the overall picture, I started off by compiling a chart of all the cases that had been reported in the area since the first reported cases in East Suffolk during the first half of March.

This involved wading through and analysing large spreadsheets that are available online on the official government reporting website - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ - to extract the appropriate data to create the chart and graph I thought would illustrate what I wanted to.

Below are two images which display the data in both chart and graph form and which are up to date with the data that has been reported today, for the 29th.

Thankfully, here in East Suffolk, we seem to be faring quite well when compared with many other parts of the country, particularly in view of the fact that the number of new lab-confirmed cases (1,715) reported today for the whole of the UK, is the highest daily total since June 4th when 1,850 cases were reported.

I intend to keep updating my chart/graph and will post the latest images weekly.

For information, the third image below lists all the districts that make up the 'East Suffolk LTA'

East Suffolk LTA Cases Data to 29th August 2020.jpg (115.44 KiB) Viewed 2674 times

East Suffolk LTA Areas as defined by PHE.jpg (142.24 KiB) Viewed 2674 times

[boatbuilder]

With news tonight that Social gatherings above six will be banned in England from 14 September , following the recent increases in cases of Covid-19, here is the data for East Suffolk updated to Sunday 6th September. [Note: the figure for the 30th August was subsequently increased from that shown in last week's data at the 29th]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54081131

chart 6-9-20.jpg (145.64 KiB) Viewed 2659 times

[boatbuilder]

With today's news showing that almost 4,000 new cases were reported nationally today, here are the latest figures for East Suffolk up to week-ending Sunday 13th, with the figures made available today but still subject to further adjustments in the coming days and which are already showing weekly increases for the past three weeks. Thankfully these figures are a lot lower than some other parts of the country, but nevertheless are still concerning.

chart 13-9-20.jpg (122.66 KiB) Viewed 2648 times

[boatbuilder]

Whilst the national picture is starting to look more serious this past week, the East Suffolk situation currently looks less alarming.

Let's hope we can keep it that way, despite the fact I noticed on Tuesday evening a rather large group (well in excess of the 'six') of youths gathered together in Carlton Meadow skate park, seemingly unaware of the new restrictions.

chart 20-9-20.jpg (107.11 KiB) Viewed 2640 times

[boatbuilder]

The two weeks that have elapsed since I last posted in this topic has seen the cases starting to rise within East Suffolk. No doubt a fair number of the cases reported in this time have been due to the outbreak at Bernard Matthews plant near Halesworth which, to date, has recorded 53 cases. As the last chart below shows, the number of new cases in the week to 4th October shows only three cases in 'Halesworth & Wangford' which would seem to indicate that the cases of the BM employees are being reported against the district where the employee lives. From reports in the East Anglian Daily Times, some of the cases from BM are employees who live in Great Yarmouth so an unknown number of those reported would not appear in the East Suffolk data.

chart 04-10-20.jpg (115.08 KiB) Viewed 2623 times

The PHE chart below shows the number of cases by district for each week since the first cases were reported back in March. However, it only displays actual numbers of three or more. Where the entries '0-2' are shown the figure could be any of 0,1 or 2. I have also hidden the weeks before week 13 along with all of the weeks 24 to 34, which I have highlighted yellow on weeks 23 and 35, as those weeks, including 23 and 35 display the '0-2' for all the East Suffolk districts.

The following chart can be enlarged by either clicking on it or clicking HERE
to open a large image in a new tab

NOTE: All the data used in these images is subject to update/change.

[boatbuilder]

Link: Covid 19 - East Suffolk added to watchlist

Here are the latest figures updated as of last night:

chart 08-10-20.jpg (123.86 KiB) Viewed 2611 times

[boatbuilder]

Here is the latest update with the figures published by PHE today (25th). The situation in East Suffolk for weekly cases is now fairly close to what it was at the peak of the first wave in April/May. I have now changed the graph to a bar graph.

I have also included an additional chart on top of those previously posted along with details of how it was compiled. All images can be enlarged (by clicking) if they are difficult to read.

1) Weekly cases, Cumulative cases and Rates/100,000 (The latest week is not yet complete) :

06_chart 25-10-20.jpg (123.02 KiB) Viewed 2491 times

2) Graph displaying the above figures:

3) Weekly figures for each MSOA district in the East Suffolk Lower Tier Authority from Week 32 to date. The greyed-out '0-2' figures against some districts can be any of 0,1 or 2 and PHE described them as being suppressed.

4) Summary of total daily cases as reported each day since the 10th October. The red figures highlight the highest figure first reported for each day since then. These red figures highlight the delay in some of the test results being reported, which in some cases be as long as four or more days.

5) Here is a link to an Excel Spreadsheet I have produced from data published on the Government website which summarises the entire UK Covid-19 situation as of today (25th). This summarises all 369 Lower Tier Authorities in the UK and can be sorted by any of the five columns B, C, D, E & F using the tiny grey arrow alongside each colum heading on Row 2.

If the sheet is sorted on Column D (Rate/100K of population) by 'smallest to largest', East Suffolk is 47th out of 369 Authorities.

---0-o-0-o-0-o-0---

Finally, I took a walk through Carlton Meadow park in Carlton Colville this afternoon around 4-pm and was disappointed to see this group of some 10-11 teenagers all gathered in close proximity to each other (some are hidden behind others) with no consideration for social distancing. So much for the 'Rule-of-Six'!!!
I took this image from a distance which I have deliberately pixelated before posting. I do have a much sharper one on which many could be identified.

[boatbuilder]

It's interesting to see a breakdown of the positive cases in East Suffolk, broken down by five-yearly age groups, each month. The data I used for this chart is issued with a five-day delay so this latest update, today, only includes figures up to 23rd October.

[boatbuilder]

As we enter November with another lockdown for four weeks just four days away, here are the latest figures for East Suffolk taken from those reported today. Thankfully not as bad as in many other parts of the country, but now at similar levels as the first wave of the virus.

Here is a link to the complete spreadsheet (Read-only) that I created, from which the third chart below is taken. It shows the daily cases in each age group from the start of the pandemic using the 'Comma Separated Values' (CSV) data taken from the GOV.UK reporting website. I try to update the sheet daily, as the GOV.UK website is updated.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjNYel9zrONfhbcfEly ... g?e=a7W2hN

1) Weekly cases, Cumulative cases and Rates/100,000 (The latest week is not yet complete) :

08_chart 30-10-20.jpg (125.19 KiB) Viewed 2383 times

2) Bar graph displaying the above figures:

3) Monthly Case Totals by Age Group

[boatbuilder]

Here is the latest update from the data supplied up to last night (5th).

I have also included an image taken from an interactive map which shows the number of cases in my own locality - Carlton Colville - for the seven days to 31st October. I find this somewhat concerning, as up to two weeks ago, the number of weekly cases had been two or less since early May. This week shows a 433% increase on the week before's figure of just three, up to 16. In view of this, I would just refer back to my post on the 25th of October in which I posted a pixelated image. Food for thought, if nothing else.

The following link is to the interactive map which is updated daily and on which you can view similar data for all the other areas of the UK by just zooming in and clicking on each area:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map

Here is the link to my complete spreadsheet (Read-only) referred to in the previous post:

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AjNYel9zrONfhbcfEly ... g?e=a7W2hN

1) Weekly cases, Cumulative cases and Rates/100,000 (The latest week is not yet complete) :

2) Bar graph displaying the above figures:

3) Monthly Case Totals by Age Group

4) Cases for Carlton Colville - 7-days to 31st October 2020

[boatbuilder]

Here are the latest updates from the data reported today.

1) Weekly cases, Cumulative cases and Rates/100,000 (The latest week may not yet be complete) :

HERE is a link to the view-only spreadsheet from which the first two images below are taken.

2) Bar graph displaying the above figures:

3) Monthly Case Totals by Age Group:

HERE is a link to the view-only spreadsheet from which the following image is taken.

[boatbuilder]

Covid: Children more likely to be infected in second wave

The number of school-age children with coronavirus has risen "significantly" in the second wave compared with the first, according to the government's scientific advisers.

Children are now more likely than adults to be the person bringing a Covid infection into a household.

A review presented to government and published on 13 November outlines the growing evidence older children can catch and transmit Covid-19 at similar rates to adults.

From around the time schools reopened in September, a rising number of children have been testing positive for coronavirus, according to the advisory group.

But the paper said the extent to which transmission was occurring in schools was "unproven and difficult to establish".

Two major surveillance studies by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Imperial College London show infections among people aged 16-24 were increasing in September.

By October increases could be seen throughout the 2-24-year-old age bracket.

There were signs of rising infection in the wider population before schools went back, however.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54937486

I think this has been obvious for some time from the figures in East Suffolk as shown in the last image below.


Here are the latest updates from the data reported today.

1) Weekly cases, Cumulative cases and Rates/100,000 (The latest week may not yet be complete) :

HERE is a link to the view-only spreadsheet from which the first two images below are taken.

2) Bar graph displaying the above figures:

3) Monthly Case Totals by Age Group:

HERE is a link to the view-only spreadsheet from which the following image is taken.

[boatbuilder]

On October 25th, I posted a Public Health England (PHE) spreadsheet image of the cases by the areas in East Suffolk (MSOA's) which showed the weekly cases of 3 or greater in each area.

Shortly after that, PHE stopped publishing the data in that spreadsheet format. However, they continued to publish the data in Comma Separated Value format (.csv). I have now been able to use the date to create my own spreadsheet displaying the data in a similar manner and here is an image from the spreadsheet of the most recent 8-weeks that have been published to date.

If you wish to look at the complete spreadsheet data back to the start in March, there is an Excel 'view only' link HERE which will be updated on a weekly basis.

click to enlarge

Below is a map that is published daily showing bands for the 7-day rates per 100,000 of population by Upper Tier Local Authority areas. (UTLA's) which gives some indication of how Suffolk compares with the rest of the UK. (The map relates to the date FIVE days prior to the date shown)

[boatbuilder]

Here are the latest charts, etc., relating to East Suffolk. All images can be enlarged.

1 & 2) Chart and graph of cases by sample date as reported on 22nd November.
Full Spreadsheet HERE

3) Monthly Cases by age groups as reported up to 17th November.
Full Spreadsheet HERE

4) Updated today, the National Map showing bands for the 7-day rates per 100,000 of population by Upper Tier Local Authority areas. (UTLA's) which gives some indication of how Suffolk compares with the rest of the UK. This can be compared with the map in the previous post. NOTE: Both maps relate to the date FIVE days prior to the published date shown on the map.

5) Chart showing the latest ten weeks of the Weekly Cases in the thirty MSOA's in East Suffolk up to 15th November.

6) NEW! Chart showing the latest ten weeks of the Weekly Case Rates per 100,000 of population in the thirty MSOA's in East Suffolk up to 15th November.

The Spreadsheets for the above two charts are in a Workbook HERE

[boatbuilder]

Here are the latest charts, etc., updated today, relating to East Suffolk. All images can be enlarged.

Above: 1 & 2) Chart and graph of cases by sample date as reported on 22nd November.
Full Spreadsheet HERE

Above: 3) Monthly Cases by age groups as reported up to 22nd November.
Full Spreadsheet HERE

14_National Map_2020_11_27.jpg (92.16 KiB) Viewed 5115 times

Above: 4) Updated today, the National Map showing bands for the 7-day rates per 100,000 of population by Upper Tier Local Authority areas. (UTLA's) which gives some indication of how Suffolk compares with the rest of the UK. This can be compared with the map in the previous post. NOTE: Both maps relate to the date FIVE days prior to the published date shown on the map.

Above: 5) Chart showing the latest ten weeks of the Weekly Cases in the thirty MSOA's in East Suffolk up to 22nd November.

Above : 6) NEW! Chart showing the latest ten weeks of the Weekly Case Rates per 100,000 of population in the thirty MSOA's in East Suffolk up to 22nd November.

The Spreadsheets for the above two charts are in a Workbook HERE


I have added an additional spreadsheet which is updated daily and shows the daily rolling case totals
as each day is added - HERE